Large losses matter disproportionately
The gain needed to return to par grows faster than the loss that caused it, so Witan evaluates drawdowns and volatility alongside return.
Witan Strategy
Follow one systematic portfolio,published every Wednesday.
Witan combines US equities, gold, commodities and Bitcoin in one rules based target portfolio. Every Wednesday, members receive the updated allocation and the note explaining what changed.
What you receive
See each weight applied to your portfolio size.
Enter any portfolio amount. The Dashboard applies each target weight to that amount so you can see the corresponding dollar allocation.
Witan DashboardIllustrative allocation example
| Asset | Target weight | Hypothetical value |
|---|---|---|
| US Equities | 45% | $45,000 |
| Gold | 25% | $25,000 |
| Commodities | 15% | $15,000 |
| Bitcoin | 5% | $5,000 |
| Cash | 10% | $10,000 |
Invented weights and amounts, shown to explain the Dashboard. These are not a live allocation and not a record of any account.
Construction
How the allocation is calculated
Performance
Simulated historical performance
One simulated series, applied to market data since July 2010 and shown after costs. No money was managed over this period and nothing here is a record of executed trades.
Backtested on market data from 13 July 2010 to 21 September 2026, including transaction costs of 5 basis points per side. Presented on a reduced basis. Logarithmic axis, weekly sample.
View the data
| Date | Witan, simulated | S&P 500 (SPY, dividends reinvested) |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-13 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2011-07-06 | $13,685 | $12,462 |
| 2012-07-04 | $16,441 | $13,054 |
| 2013-07-03 | $23,092 | $15,664 |
| 2014-07-02 | $27,282 | $19,531 |
| 2015-07-01 | $28,247 | $20,953 |
| 2016-06-29 | $32,104 | $21,320 |
| 2017-06-28 | $37,595 | $25,630 |
| 2018-06-27 | $44,483 | $28,883 |
| 2019-06-26 | $53,087 | $31,763 |
| 2020-06-24 | $62,850 | $33,916 |
| 2021-06-23 | $84,687 | $47,836 |
| 2022-06-22 | $89,807 | $42,982 |
| 2023-06-21 | $99,623 | $50,749 |
| 2024-06-19 | $120,999 | $64,685 |
| 2025-06-18 | $138,847 | $71,354 |
| 2026-06-17 | $162,758 | $89,511 |
| 2026-09-21 | $167,055 | $93,915 |
The reference series is shown for orientation, not as a target or an official benchmark. It is a single US equity exposure, on the same dates and the same starting amount.
- $10,000 becomes
- $167,055
- Annualised return
- 19.0%
- Deepest fall
- -9.8%
Weekly Charter
A weekly reading of five markets
The Regime Compass tracks US equities, US Treasuries, gold, commodities and Bitcoin. Each market is classified as constructive, in transition or under pressure.
The Weekly Charter is a free weekly reading of market conditions. It describes what Witan observes, not what the Strategy holds, and the portfolio holds no Treasuries.
States and readings are taken from the current published edition.
01 / 05
US Equities
Transition
The market trades above its underlying trend, but the gap separating it from that trend has narrowed this week. The expected confirmation did not come and the regime remains Transition.
- US EquitiesTransition
- US TreasuriesUnder pressure
- GoldUnder pressure
- CommoditiesConstructive
- BitcoinConstructive
Method
Risk is evaluated before return.
What a loss costs to recover
Arithmetic, not a projection. A larger loss needs a larger gain to return to par.
- 20% loss+25% to recover
- 30% loss+43% to recover
- 50% loss+100% to recover
Diversification is about behaviour, not asset count
Adding more assets does not necessarily make a portfolio more diversified. What matters is whether its components behave differently when market conditions change.
Subscription
Access the Witan Strategy
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Same product and same rights. Only the billing period changes.
What is included
- Weekly target allocation
- Allocation archive
- Witan Dashboard
- Methodology and publication notes
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