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The mechanisms behind the decisions, one note at a time.
These notes explain how markets actually behave, not what to buy. Each one takes a single mechanism, shows where intuition misleads, and stops. They are free, and they do not ask for your address.
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Read these first, in this order.
This sequence is an editorial choice, not an algorithm. It is the order in which the ideas depend on each other.
- 01
- 02
- 03
Every note
8 notes across 7 open subjects.
Each note takes one mechanism and stops. Reading time is the honest length, not an estimate that flatters the page.
What you can actually own7 min
Gold
Gold has no issuer, no contract and no internal cash flow: nothing about it pays you for holding it. Its return comes entirely from the change in its price, which makes it a different kind of asset from a share or a bond rather than a defective version of either.
ETFs, properly7 min
What an ETF is
An ETF is a fund whose shares trade on an exchange like a single company's. You own shares in the fund and the fund owns the assets, so one purchase gives you exposure to everything inside it. The wrapper is straightforward; what decides your risk is the rule that fills it and what it costs to hold.
How investing actually works7 min
Price, value and expectations
A price is not a measurement of what something is worth. It is what buyers and sellers will trade at now, and it already contains what they collectively expect. That is why an announcement can be good and the price can still fall.
How investing actually works7 min
A strategy is a decision method, not a prediction
A prediction says what will happen. A decision method says what you do, under stated conditions, whatever happens. The difference shows up at the only moment that matters: when you have to act and the outcome is still unknown.
What you're actually buying7 min
What a world equity ETF actually holds
"World" on a fund is not a description of the planet. It names an index, and the major world indices cover very different universes. Some exclude emerging markets entirely, and most weight by market value, which concentrates them wherever prices have risen most.
Putting it together7 min
Real versus apparent diversification
Counting your funds answers one question about diversification and is silent on another. It tells you something about how exposed you are to any single company failing; it tells you nothing about what your holdings have in common. That is what decides whether they fall together.
What risk actually means7 min
What a drawdown is
A drawdown is the fall from a previous high down to the low that follows it, measured as a percentage. A second measure is its duration: the time spent below that high before it is regained. The two are read together to understand what holding the investment involved.
Systematic strategies9 min
What tactical asset allocation is
Tactical asset allocation, or TAA, adjusts how much of a portfolio sits in each broad category as conditions change, rather than holding fixed proportions through everything. Those shifts may be judged by a person or decided by written rules, but they move between whole categories, never between individual companies.
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Subjects
- How investing actually works2
- Your money before your portfolioAnnounced
- What you can actually own1
- ETFs, properly1
- What you're actually buying1
- What risk actually means1
- Putting it together1
- Staying with itAnnounced
- Systematic strategies1
Two subjects are written and hold no note yet. They are listed because the shape of the library is not a secret.
Why this is free
Understanding is not the thing we sell.
What a subscription buys is the weekly allocation and the note that explains it. What you need in order to judge whether that is worth anything is on this page, and it stays here whether you subscribe or not.