Weekly CharterN° 172026-08-02
The rise holds, but is narrowing
Solid but narrower action, gold weakened, bitcoin cooled, commodities pausing.
Earlier edition format. This edition was published before the five market reading, and it is shown with the four pillars it carried.
This week in three points
Stocks remain above their long-term trend, constructive regime intact.
The rally is resting on fewer stocks: this is the deterioration to watch.
Awaited confirmation: a return of a greater number of rising values.
The four pillars
This edition reads four pillars. Government bonds joined the reading later, and nothing here stands in for them.
Equities
Favourable but less broad
Trend: Favourable · Momentum: Neutral · Coherence: Confirmed
Gold
Weakening
Trend: Unfavourable · Momentum: Neutral · Coherence: Confirmed
Commodities
Inflationary push
Trend: Favourable · Momentum: Favourable · Coherence: Confirmed
Bitcoin
Cooling
Trend: Unfavourable · Momentum: Neutral · Coherence: Confirmed
What the week did
- What changed
- Compared to last week, the stock market rally is now being supported by a smaller number of stocks, whereas it had previously rested on a broader base; the weakening of gold has furthermore been confirmed.
- What did not change
- Equities remain above their long-term trend and appetite for risk remains present, with no shift toward a defensive regime.
- The reading
- Risk appetite remains present and equities are holding above their long-term trend, but the advance is resting on a narrower set of names. This narrowing is the central signal of the week, without constituting a regime reversal.
- A caution
- A constructive trend excludes neither short-term consolidation nor a short-term reversal. The weakness in gold and bitcoin is not sufficient to invalidate the favourable regime for equities; it would be premature to conclude that a broad reversal is under way simply because these two assets are declining.
The market pulse
| Market | Level | Week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP500 | 747.03 | +1.1% | +9.9% |
| Gold | 371.54 | -0.1% | -6.7% |
| Commodities | 29.45 | -2.2% | +31.5% |
| Bitcoin | 63,372 | -0.8% | -28.6% |