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The Sunday CharterN° 23Semaine close le 13 septembre 20266 minutesrevision 1

A week that pulls back without settling anything

This week, nearly every market gave up ground, but none changed its state. The nervousness the market had been expecting rose again, without turning into a break. It is an ordinary week of retreat, not a reversal.

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

The five markets keep the state they held last week.

The pullback is almost across the board on prices, without the underlying reading shifting.

What changes

Gold and government bonds both remain below their long-term trend, and the gap has widened further.

So the two usual shock absorbers are both missing at the same time.

What to watch

Commodities remain the only market whose lead continues to widen.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

Equities remain in Transition for the third week, above their long-term trend but without clear confirmation. The previous edition was waiting for participation to broaden; the gap to the trend narrowed instead this week, which does not provide the solidity that had been hoped for.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds remain below their long-term orientation, and the gap has widened further. The return above this underlying slope, which would have restored some reach to their role as a shock absorber, did not occur.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold remains below its long-term trend and moves further away from it this week. The recovery that would have placed it back above its months-long orientation did not take place.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities remain the market furthest above its underlying trend, and this gap continues to widen. This prolonged strength remains the point to watch: if it lasts, it can weigh on prices elsewhere.

Bitcoin

Constructive

Bitcoin keeps its constructive state for the third week, its underlying trend remaining oriented upward. The price eased slightly and its lead over the trend narrowed a little, without bringing it back into the indecision it had emerged from.

The chart of the week

Commodities hold the longest-standing lead

The ratio tracked over the displayed period, compared with its long-term trend

A curve rising over the displayed period, staying above its dotted long-term trend line. The curve starts lower on the left and rises steadily up to the last point, on the right. It stays above the long-term trend marker, a dotted line that follows the same direction more gently. The gap between the curve and this marker widens toward the end of the period, with no visible break. The marker stops at the last point and does not extend beyond it. Commodities hold the longest-standing lead The ratio tracked over the displayed period, compared with its long-term trend Period Level 20.00 25.00 30.00 Sep 24 Mar 25 Sep 25 Mar 26 Sep 26 — — — long trend

Scroll the chart sideways, or read it in words below.

A curve rising over the displayed period, staying above its dotted long-term trend line.
Read the chart in words

The curve starts lower on the left and rises steadily up to the last point, on the right. It stays above the long-term trend marker, a dotted line that follows the same direction more gently. The gap between the curve and this marker widens toward the end of the period, with no visible break. The marker stops at the last point and does not extend beyond it.

What we observe

The curve rises across the entire displayed period and stays above its long-term trend marker, drawn as a dotted line. The gap between the two has widened over the past several weeks.

Why it matters

It is the only one of the five markets whose lead over its underlying trend continues to grow. When a rise settles in over time on real goods, it can eventually feed price pressures elsewhere.

What not to conclude

A rising curve does not say whether the rise will hold next week, nor which segments it rests on. The dotted marker stops at the last plotted point: it is not a forecast.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The markets

Understanding the first three pillars

Equities

US equities pull back over the week and stay above their long-term trend, but their lead is drawing closer to this underlying line.

This week
−1.1%
Since January
+12.5%
Long-term trend
+7.3%

The market still holds its position, without the doubt of recent weeks being lifted: the state of indecision continues. Staying above the trend says nothing about how many companies are actually carrying the rise.

What would change the reading A broader participation of stocks would restore solidity to the reading; a gap that keeps shrinking would weaken it.

Treasuries

Government bonds pull back again and sink a little further below their long-term trend.

This week
−1.4%
Since January
−2.7%
Long-term trend
−2.6%

The condition set last week — a settled return above this underlying line — has not come about, and the market has instead moved away from it. As long as they stay below, their capacity to cushion a shock on equities remains diminished.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their long-term orientation would restore their role as a shock absorber.

Gold

Gold falls markedly over the week and widens its gap below its long trend.

This week
−2.8%
Since January
+0.1%
Long-term trend
−4.1%

The weakness of gold, a safe haven sought when confidence recedes, indicates that this search for safety is not taking hold despite the pullback in equities. This drift away from the trend also pushes back the return to a more favourable reading mentioned last week.

What would change the reading A lasting recovery that places it back above its long trend would reopen this hypothesis.

Commodities

Commodities advance again this week and widen their lead over their orientation of several months.

This week
+3.8%
Since January
+48.1%
Long-term trend
+21.2%

This cyclical market, which follows real economic activity and supply tensions, remains the only one whose gap continues to widen upward. An advance that stretches this far can also feed price tensions if it persists.

What would change the reading A return below their long-term orientation would tip this reading over.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin gives up a little ground over the week but remains above its long trend.

This week
−1.5%
Since January
−12.9%
Long-term trend
+10.2%

The asset stays in the favourable zone it had entered, even though its gap above the trend has narrowed slightly. As it overstates both directions, such a weekly pullback is not enough to turn the underlying movement around.

What would change the reading A relapse settling below its long-term trend would return it to the indecision it had come out of.

The market environment

US10Y 4.98%, +0.21pt
The long-term cost of money rises this week, which weighs on the value of loans already granted to the State.
DXY 99.10, −0.1%
The dollar remains nearly stable and adds no particular pressure on assets denominated in its currency.
VIX 15.84, +9.0%
The nervousness the market anticipates climbs markedly, even though it starts from a low level.

The discipline of the week

The week imposes little: none of the five markets asks to be read any differently than it was seven days ago.

  • Two observations from the last edition held true. Equities were awaiting a widening in order to firm up; it was a narrowing that was confirmed instead, and their reading remains in between. Government bonds were awaiting a settled return above their underlying direction; it did not occur, and they sink a little further into it.
  • Gold and government bonds weaken together, but each for what it is: one a safe haven whose appeal is fading, the other a cushion that does not cushion as long as it stays below its long-term trend. Not confusing the two means remembering that a single market direction can cover two distinct stories.
  • The only advance that keeps widening remains that of commodities. It is the move to watch closely, less for what it brings than for what it may feed into the price of things if its strength continues.

A week that pulls back without deciding calls for no action; it calls for patience. What would change the reading is known and has not happened: as long as the gaps do not cross, one way or the other, the underlying line of each market, there is nothing to conclude that is not already written.

How to read this

  • A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.
  • They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.
Published by
Witan Way
Data as of
11 septembre 2026
Methodology
witanway.com/methodology Read it
Interests & conflicts
declaration as at the publication date

Witan Way is an independent, rules-based investing education platform. Nothing published constitutes personalised investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Capital is at risk. © Witan Way.