The Sunday CharterN° 25Semaine close le 27 septembre 20266 minutesrevision 1
None of the five markets change regime this week. The margin of equities above their trend widens; gold and bonds move further below theirs. Commodities remain Constructive despite their weekly decline of 0.9%.
Equities remain in Transition despite a weekly rise of 1.3%.
Bitcoin remains Constructive despite a pullback of 2.0%; commodities keep a margin of 16.9% above their long trend.
Gold is now 5.5% below its long trend and bonds 3.5% below theirs.
The margin of equities above their trend moves from +6.9% to +7.9%, without any change of regime.
The dollar strengthens and the long-term cost of money rises.
Market nervousness remains low.
The five markets at a glance
Equities
Transition
Equities remain in Transition despite a rise of 1.3% over the week. Their margin above the trend improves, but the regime does not change.
Treasuries
Under pressure
Government bonds move below their long-term orientation, and drift a little further away from it. The lasting return above this trend, which would signal an improvement, has not occurred.
Gold
Under pressure
Gold moves at −5.5% below its long trend, compared with −3.6% the previous week.
Commodities
Constructive
Commodities hold clearly above their orientation of several months. The distance has narrowed a little, but nothing has moved below the underlying trend, which would have tipped the reading.
Bitcoin
Constructive
Bitcoin remains Constructive despite a decline of 2.0% over the week. The pivot that had triggered this regime has not been broken; it nonetheless remains to be confirmed over time.
The chart of the week
A broad trajectory — energy, metals, agriculture — compared with its underlying trend
Scroll the chart sideways, or read it in words below.
The curve starts from a level and holds it roughly through to the last point, without a marked break or strong acceleration. A dotted line runs in parallel, below it, and represents the long-term trend calculated over the period shown; it stops at the last visible point and does not extend further.
Over the period shown, the curve remains broadly stable and holds above the dotted marker representing its long-term trend. This marker is calculated only over the visible period and stops at the last plotted point.
This basket tracks real economic activity and supply strains. Seeing it hold above its underlying orientation says that the move under way has not reversed, even as the week added no momentum.
A stable curve above its trend says nothing about the week ahead, nor about the share of components taking part in the move. The dotted marker is not a projection: it does not venture beyond the last point.
The markets
US equities rise over the week and remain above their underlying trend, without settling their state for all that.
The margin above the trend moves from +6.9% to +7.9%. This gain does not, on its own, prove that more stocks are taking part in the rise.
What would change the reading A rise in which a greater number of companies took part would draw this market toward a more assertive regime.
Government bonds decline further and sink deeper below their underlying trend.
Bonds lose ground over the week; their gap to the trend widens from below to further below.
What would change the reading A lasting return above their long-term trend would signal an improvement in the regime.
Gold declines over the week and remains below its long-term trend.
The safe-haven asset trades below its multi-month orientation, and the gap widens further still. Nothing in the week brings this asset closer to the threshold that would reopen the hypothesis of an improvement.
What would change the reading A recovery that would place it durably above its long-term trend would change the reading.
Commodities give up a little over the week but stay clearly above their underlying trend.
This cyclical market — energy, metals, agriculture — keeps a comfortable lead over its long-term orientation despite the pullback. The slight decline barely brings the curve closer to its underlying slope, without threatening its direction.
What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading.
Bitcoin declines over the week while remaining largely above its underlying trend.
The most speculative asset retains a marked lead over its long-term orientation, and that lead has even widened despite the weekly decline. The pivot that had tipped this market into its current state has not been called into question.
What would change the reading A lasting break of this pivot would put the regime in question.
The discipline of the week
Nothing this week compels a revision of the reading. What is solid remains so, what is fragile has not recovered, and the in-between of equities remains the in-between it was. The right stance consists in not confusing a lasting underlying move with one that would be decisive — the two only resemble each other from afar.
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