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The Sunday CharterN° 26Semaine close le 4 octobre 20266 minutesrevision 1

Nothing tips over, but the gaps shift

None of the five markets changed state this week: the regimes held in the preceding weeks still hold. What moves is read in the detail, where certain gaps narrow while others widen. The long-term cost of money rises again and the dollar firms, two forces that weigh on the backdrop.

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

The five markets keep the state they had last week.

The stability concerns the verdicts, not the distances to the trend.

What changes

Gold and government bonds sink a little further below their underlying trend.

At the same time, equities, commodities and bitcoin move closer to theirs.

What to watch

The long-term cost of money rises again and the dollar advances.

This environment can weigh on the assets most sensitive to rates and to the dollar.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

The market trades above its underlying trend, but the gap separating it from that trend has narrowed this week. The expected confirmation did not come and the regime remains Transition.

Treasuries

Under pressure

US government bonds trade below their long-term orientation, and their distance from that trend has widened further. The portfolio's usual shock absorber is not playing its role at the moment.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold remains the market furthest below its long trend, and that gap has widened again this week.

Commodities

Constructive

The cyclical basket (energy, metals, agriculture) remains clearly above its underlying trend, even after a week without direction. Its regime remains clearly Constructive despite the week's slight pullback.

Bitcoin

Constructive

The speculative asset remains the furthest above its long-term trend, while moving slightly closer to it this week. Its regime is not called into question, but the margin separating it from that trend has narrowed.

The chart of the week

Equities hold their line

The US market remains above its underlying trend, without any particular momentum

Curve of the US equity market, broadly stable, situated above its long-term trend marker. The curve starts from a level, holds across the whole period shown without marked movement, and ends roughly where it began. A dotted marker represents the long-term trend; the curve stays above it from start to finish. This marker is calculated over the period shown and stops at the last point of the curve. Equities hold their line The US market remains above its underlying trend, without any particular momentum Period Level 650.00 700.00 750.00 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26 — — — long trend

Scroll the chart sideways, or read it in words below.

Curve of the US equity market, broadly stable, situated above its long-term trend marker.
Read the chart in words

The curve starts from a level, holds across the whole period shown without marked movement, and ends roughly where it began. A dotted marker represents the long-term trend; the curve stays above it from start to finish. This marker is calculated over the period shown and stops at the last point of the curve.

What we observe

The curve stays broadly stable across the whole period shown, with no break upward or downward. It moves above its long-term trend marker, drawn as a dotted line.

Why it matters

A stable path above its underlying trend explains why the verdict remains halfway: the market is not weakening, but it is not confirming anything either. This is exactly the picture of a regime that waits.

What not to conclude

The curve says nothing about how many companies take part in sustaining it, nor about the week ahead. The dotted marker stops at the last measured point: it is not a projection.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The markets

Understanding the first three pillars

Equities

US equities edge back only slightly over the week and keep the intermediate state they already held in the previous weeks.

This week
−0.2%
Since January
+13.5%
Long-term trend
+7.3%

The market moves above its underlying trend, but the gap separating it from that trend has tightened this week, and it is this tightening that keeps it in an in-between rather than an asserted regime. The previous edition was watching for a rise carried by more companies; the week did not bring that confirmation.

What would change the reading An advance in which a greater number of stocks took part would move this market out of the in-between.

Treasuries

US government bonds lose ground and remain below their long-term trend.

This week
−0.7%
Since January
−4.5%
Long-term trend
−4.1%

They are sinking further below their long-term orientation, in a context of rising rates. Their ability to play their traditional role as a cushion therefore remains limited.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their long-term trend would mark an improvement in their situation.

Gold

Gold falls markedly over the week and moves still further from its underlying trend.

This week
−3.4%
Since January
−4.6%
Long-term trend
−8.7%

The gap to its trend of several months has widened over a week. No sign of a re-establishment above this marker has yet appeared.

What would change the reading A recovery that placed it lastingly back above its long-term trend would change the reading.

Commodities

Commodities give up very slightly but remain solidly above their long-term trend.

This week
−0.2%
Since January
+45.3%
Long-term trend
+15.6%

This cyclical basket follows real economic activity and tensions on supply; its firmness says that this spring is holding despite the week's pullback. Energy in particular deserves attention within this set, even if the slight withdrawal of the week overturns nothing of its underlying slope.

What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin advances over the week and holds well above its long-term trend.

This week
+1.4%
Since January
−4.4%
Long-term trend
+18.6%

Bitcoin remains above its long-term trend, by the widest margin of the five markets. That gap has nevertheless narrowed slightly this week.

What would change the reading A lasting break below its underlying trend would call its regime into question.

The market environment

US10Y 5.28%, +0.09pt
The cost of money over the long term rises again, which weighs on assets sensitive to rates.
DXY 101.92, +0.9%
The dollar is firming, a move liable to weigh on the assets most sensitive to a strong dollar.
VIX 15.31, +3.0%
The nervousness anticipated by the market rises a little, without leaving an overall calm level.

The discipline of the week

The week asks for nothing new: it deepens what was already deep and confirms what was already holding.

  • Two markets sink further below their long-term orientation, each for its own reason: the safe-haven asset retreats when confidence is not lacking, and the bond cushion suffers when the cost of money rises again. These two weaknesses do not tell the same story and should not be read together.
  • The cyclical market and the digital asset remain clearly above their underlying trend, and the large-company market keeps its in-between state: neither confirmed nor broken. This is the part of the page that deserves the most attention, because it is the only one still to be decided.

Nothing this week forces a change in reading; everything invites keeping these threads distinct.

How to read this

  • A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.
  • They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.
Published by
Witan Way
Data as of
2 octobre 2026
Methodology
witanway.com/methodology Read it
Interests & conflicts
declaration as at the publication date

Witan Way is an independent, rules-based investing education platform. Nothing published constitutes personalised investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Capital is at risk. © Witan Way.