How long could my money last?
One deterministic scenario, month by month, with the withdrawal rising each year. This is not a probability of success. It is a single path you can check, and a grid showing how little it takes to move it.
Your scenario
The capital runs out inMonth 278That is 23 years and 2 months of withdrawals, starting at $2,500 a month and rising 2% a year. $872,579 is drawn in total, and the last month pays out only what is left of it.Move the return by 2% either way and the withdrawal by 10%: the same scenario empties as early as 16.7 years, and in some of those variants it does not empty inside the bound at all. The answer is a property of the assumptions.
The month's return is applied first, then the withdrawal is taken, and the rise lands once a year on the anniversary. The return is a nominal assumption; the withdrawal rises separately. This is one deterministic path under the figures you set: it is not a forecast, and no percentage is attached to it.
Show the figures
| Year | Capital left | Monthly withdrawal, year ahead |
|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | $500,000 | $2,500 |
| Year 1 | $494,319 | $2,550 |
| Year 2 | $487,739 | $2,601 |
| Year 3 | $480,205 | $2,653 |
| Year 4 | $471,656 | $2,706 |
| Year 5 | $462,029 | $2,760 |
| Year 6 | $451,255 | $2,815 |
| Year 7 | $439,266 | $2,872 |
| Year 8 | $425,986 | $2,929 |
| Year 9 | $411,337 | $2,988 |
| Year 10 | $395,236 | $3,047 |
| Year 11 | $377,598 | $3,108 |
| Year 12 | $358,329 | $3,171 |
| Year 13 | $337,334 | $3,234 |
| Year 14 | $314,511 | $3,299 |
| Year 15 | $289,753 | $3,365 |
| Year 16 | $262,947 | $3,432 |
| Year 17 | $233,976 | $3,501 |
| Year 18 | $202,713 | $3,571 |
| Year 19 | $169,028 | $3,642 |
| Year 20 | $132,782 | $3,715 |
| Year 21 | $93,831 | $3,789 |
| Year 22 | $52,019 | $3,865 |
| Year 23 | $7,187 | $3,942 |
| Year 24 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 25 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 26 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 27 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 28 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 29 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 30 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 31 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 32 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 33 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 34 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 35 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 36 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 37 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 38 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 39 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 40 | $0 | $0 |